Why Diesel Prices and Fuel Surcharges Are Surging in Australia — Strait of Hormuz, Global Oil Markets, and What It Means for Container Transport Costs in 2026
Last Updated: 24 March 2026. Updated weekly alongside Core Logistics’ Monday fuel surcharge notice. Historical price data in this article is fixed. Current diesel prices and supply conditions change daily — see the live data note below.
Where are Melbourne diesel prices right now? Visit aip.com.au for the current AIP Melbourne terminal gate price, updated weekly. For live Australian fuel supply and reserve projections, visit nzoilwatch.com and select AU in the top right menu. Core Logistics clients receive the current surcharge rate via Monday morning update — submit your business email in the form below to receive it.
Key Takeaways
- From the first trading day after the Khamenei assassination (3 March 2026) to 24 March, Melbourne diesel moved from 165.6¢/L to 295.1¢/L — a 78.2% increase in 21 days per AIP Melbourne terminal gate data. Prices continue to move; see the live data link above for current figures
- Root cause: US-Israeli strikes on Iran (28 February 2026) triggered Hormuz closure; ~20% of global oil supply disrupted overnight
- Brent crude peaked at US$126/barrel in the first two weeks of the crisis; it has since moved — current Brent pricing is live on Bloomberg, Reuters, or the AIP site
- Australia imports 90%+ of its refined fuel; holds only ~34 days of diesel reserve — non-compliant with the IEA 90-day requirement since 2012
- Every major shipping line is now charging Emergency Bunker Surcharges on Australian trades; global air freight capacity is down approximately 18%
- Core Logistics shifted from monthly to weekly surcharge reviews on 9 March 2026 in direct response to diesel price volatility — three separate updates were required in the first two weeks
- Industry analysts and the Treasurer have flagged elevated prices could persist 12–36 months as a credible planning horizon
What Happened to Melbourne Diesel Prices: The First Three Weeks
The numbers below are historical — they document the price trajectory from the onset of the Hormuz crisis through 24 March 2026. They are fixed and will not change. For current Melbourne terminal gate pricing, use the AIP link at the top of this article.
On Monday 3 March 2026 — the first trading day after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February — Melbourne terminal gate diesel opened at 165.6¢/L. Markets had already moved. By 9 March it had reached 196.8¢/L. By 11 March, 227.1¢/L. By 16 March, 249.8¢/L. By 20 March, 280.9¢/L. By 23 March, 290.3¢/L. By 24 March — the day before this article was published — 295.1¢/L.
That is a 78.2% increase in 21 days — and prices continue to move after that date.
The Container Transport Alliance Australia (CTAA) — the peak body representing landside container logistics operators in Australia — reported that the Melbourne terminal gate price rose 29.22% in a single week between Wednesday 4 and Tuesday 10 March.
By 13 March, CTAA confirmed the average terminal gate price had already increased more than 50% across all major capital cities from 2 March.
The week following told the same story: by 20 March, the total increase from 2 March reached 69.62% in Melbourne, and between 70% and 71.5% across Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth.
By 24 March, Melbourne had reached 295.1¢/L — a 78.2% rise from the 3 March open of 165.6¢/L. Prices have continued to move since that date. CTAA publicly recommended that container transport operators review their fuel surcharge rates on at least a weekly basis — a recommendation that reflected exactly how rapidly the market was moving.
Core Logistics updated its fuel surcharge three times between 9 and 23 March, moving to a weekly review cycle specifically because the pace of price movements made monthly reviews inadequate. The fuel surcharge is calculated as a percentage of the base transport charge on each job — not a flat fee and not a fixed buffer — which means it reflects actual cost conditions rather than an estimate made weeks earlier. Updates are issued Monday mornings, with additional notices when prices move sharply mid-week.
All diesel price data cited in this article is sourced from the Australian Institute of Petroleum’s Melbourne terminal gate pricing, published at aip.com.au.
Why Melbourne Diesel Prices Have Surged: The Strait of Hormuz Explained
The diesel price movement did not emerge from nowhere. It has a precise origin point.
On Saturday 28 February 2026, US and Israeli forces assassinated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran responded by declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed to Western commercial shipping. By the following Monday — 3 March — Melbourne terminal gate diesel had already opened at 165.6¢/L, with markets pricing in the risk before most supply chains had registered the full implications.
According to reporting on the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, more than 150 tankers stalled at the entrance to the strait and vessel traffic through the corridor dropped approximately 70%.
The commercial significance of that closure is inseparable from the strait’s role in global oil supply. The Hormuz carries approximately 20% of globally traded oil — around 20 million barrels per day, according to US Energy Information Administration data cited by CommBank economist Belinda Allen. When that corridor closes, oil markets reprice immediately.
Brent crude surpassed US$100/barrel on 8 March 2026 and peaked at US$126/barrel in the days following. The IRU’s March 2026 fuel analysis reported Brent rose roughly 65% between 27 February and 9 March. Iran made 21 confirmed attacks on merchant vessels as of 12 March. All vessels serving global trade lanes rerouted to the Cape of Good Hope, adding 3,500–4,000 nautical miles per voyage and substantially increasing bunker fuel consumption across every trade route in the world.
At time of first publication (24 March 2026), signals from the Trump administration suggested a possible winding down of US military involvement, and Brent had eased from its US$126 peak. The structural supply disruption had not resolved, and markets continued to price in significant risk. The geopolitical situation has continued to evolve — current status is best tracked through live news sources.
Why Australia Is Particularly Exposed
Australia’s exposure to fuel price shocks of this kind is structural, not incidental.
Australia imports approximately 90% of its refined fuel — among the highest import dependency ratios of any developed nation, as noted independently by CommBank and the Australasian Supply Chain & Logistics Association (ASCLA) in March 2026 published analysis. Around 30% of Australia’s refined fuel transits Hormuz indirectly, refining through South Korean and Singaporean facilities that themselves draw on Middle Eastern crude. The disruption is not limited to direct imports from the Gulf region.
Australia’s fuel reserve position made the situation more acute. As of 20 March 2026 — the most recent data point at time of publication — live tracking data indicated approximately 20 days of diesel supply held in-country, with a further 15 days of supply on the water heading to Australia from Singapore, and three fewer tankers than normal confirmed en route. For current reserve data, visit nzoilwatch.com and select AU. Energy Minister Chris Bowen confirmed that fuel shipments from Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea scheduled to arrive in Australia have been cancelled or deferred. CTAA’s 23 March update noted that only three tankers with crude oil had departed the Strait of Hormuz destined for Singapore’s refineries — a supply stream listed as critical. This matters for Australia specifically because approximately 30% of our refined fuel refines through Singapore and South Korea, meaning the upstream supply constraint flows directly to Australian terminal gate prices, not just via direct Middle Eastern imports.
On 13 March 2026, the Australian government authorised the release of 762 million litres (4.8 million barrels) from domestic reserves. More than 107 fuel stations across New South Wales reported diesel shortages. Dr Lurion De Mello of Macquarie Business School observed that if the crisis continued for weeks or extended further, genuine domestic fuel shortages would move from theoretical to plausible.
The ASCLA CEO Steven Ballerini published analysis recommending businesses plan for elevated prices persisting 12 to 36 months — a position also reflected in public comments from the Treasurer, and one that should be driving planning decisions now rather than in six months.
How Rising Fuel Costs Are Hitting the Entire Container Freight Chain
For freight forwarders managing container transport through the Port of Melbourne, the fuel crisis isn’t isolated to a single line item on a single invoice. Cost increases are moving simultaneously across every mode.
On ocean freight, the position is unambiguous. Every major shipping line serving Australian and New Zealand trade lanes — including Maersk, CMA CGM/ANL, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, ONE, PIL, OOCL, and SeaLead — has implemented Emergency Bunker Surcharges, effective mid-to-late March 2026. These surcharges sit on top of existing Bunker Adjustment Factors and base freight rates, and no carrier on Australian trades has been exempt. D&D Worldwide Logistics, which has been tracking and publishing carrier notices throughout the crisis, confirmed CMA CGM/ANL moved first with an Emergency Cargo Surcharge from 16 March. Hapag-Lloyd implemented both a flat Emergency Bunker Surcharge and a separate Marine Fuel Recovery structure by trade lane, effective 23 March. The root cause cited in every carrier notice is the same: the Cape of Good Hope reroute adds 3,500–4,000 nautical miles per voyage, and marine fuel is a global commodity — when oil exceeds US$100/barrel, the cost flows through every trade lane, not just those near the Gulf.
Global air freight capacity is down approximately 18%, according to industry data cited by D&D Worldwide Logistics in March 2026. Airspace closures across multiple countries have reduced available routing, and the portion of global air freight that normally transits the Gulf region — approximately 13% — has been severely disrupted. Rates are updating frequently across all airlines.
For domestic road transport, the relationship between diesel price and freight surcharge is well-established. CTAA has noted that for metropolitan container transport operators, fuel costs typically account for between 17% and 22% of overall heavy vehicle operating costs.
As a practical benchmark, every 5¢/L increase in diesel translates to approximately a 1% increase in an operator's fuel levy. — CTAA
From 3 March to 24 March 2026, Melbourne diesel moved more than 129¢/L — and continues to move after that. Apply that CTAA formula to the current AIP price to understand what the market looks like right now.
As a diesel-dependent operation, every container movement at the Port of Melbourne is directly affected. When Melbourne diesel rises 78% in three weeks, that is not an abstraction. It is a direct input cost change that flows onto every invoice from every import and export wharf cartage provider in the country.
How Core Logistics Is Handling This
Core Logistics is a member of the Container Transport Alliance Australia (CTAA) and Freight & Trade Alliance (FTA) — both of which have been among the most active industry bodies communicating guidance to operators and clients throughout this crisis.
On 9 March 2026, Core Logistics moved from its standard monthly surcharge review to a weekly update cycle, tracking Melbourne AIP terminal gate prices directly. When Melbourne diesel rose 29% in a single week, a monthly review cycle was no longer capable of reflecting actual operating costs. In the first two weeks of the new cycle, three separate notices were required — a mid-week notice on 11 March, and a Friday update on 13 March when prices moved again before the following Monday.
The fuel surcharge is calculated as a percentage of the base transport charge on each job — not a flat fee and not a fixed buffer. This means the surcharge adjusts with actual cost conditions rather than estimated ones set weeks in advance.
Updates are issued Monday mornings, giving freight forwarder clients full visibility at the start of each working week. In weeks where a public holiday falls on Monday, or where prices move sharply mid-week, additional notices are issued before the next scheduled update.
Core Logistics’ approach reflects the company’s stated operating value: “Talk Early, Talk Often — we don’t wait for you to chase us. No hiding bad news, no radio silence, no surprises.”
What to Expect From Here
As of 23 March 2026, the situation had eased slightly from the initial peak — but the analyst sentiment data published in CTAA’s 23 March update reflected a market that was not pricing in a near-term resolution. At that date: 66.5% of analysts believed the Strait of Hormuz would not be normalised by the end of April. 58% believed there would be a near-total blockade. The cumulative probability of a US-Iran ceasefire was assessed at 72% likelihood of not occurring before the end of 2026. These figures are dated to 23 March 2026 — the underlying situation continues to evolve.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, supply chain normalisation takes weeks, not days:
- Refineries cannot restart at full capacity instantaneously
- Vessels rerouted to the Cape of Good Hope cannot immediately return to shorter trade lanes — the vessels are already at sea
- Insurance markets are pricing in elevated war risk and will remain cautious regardless of a political settlement
- Emergency Bunker Surcharge structures introduced by shipping lines will take time to unwind through carrier review cycles
Businesses should plan around the following regardless of where diesel is trading today:
- Model container transport cost exposure at $2.50/L and $3.00/L diesel scenarios for forward planning — the calculator in this article does exactly that
- Engage your wharf cartage provider and freight forwarder on fuel surcharge mechanisms now, ahead of the next price movement
- Monitor AIP Melbourne terminal gate prices at aip.com.au on a weekly basis — this is the primary source for all surcharge calculations
- Track live Australian fuel supply and reserve data at nzoilwatch.com — select AU for the Australian figures
- Stay across carrier Emergency Bunker Surcharge advisories via your freight forwarder — all major lines are reviewing their EBS structures on rolling cycles
The 12-to-36-month elevated price horizon flagged by both ASCLA and the Treasurer is a realistic planning assumption, not a worst-case scenario. Businesses that build the new cost baseline into their models now are better positioned than those waiting for normalisation that may not arrive on a near-term timeline. For importers and exporters managing time-sensitive movements, early engagement with container transport providers on surcharge structures matters more, not less, in this environment.
Core Logistics will continue weekly surcharge reviews for as long as diesel market volatility warrants it. All clients receive Monday morning updates directly, with additional notices issued when prices warrant it mid-week.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ): Fuel Surcharges and Melbourne Diesel Prices
The Diesel Fuel Surcharge Calculator referenced earlier in this article is available on request — submit your business email above to receive the link and Core Logistics’ full March 2026 rate history. If you have questions about how fuel surcharge changes are being applied to your account, contact our team directly.
